🧠 Executive Summary

Ad Fraud Recovery addresses a mounting issue in digital marketing: ad fraud that silently siphons off large portions of PPC budgets. With global digital ad spend surpassing $600B, an estimated $88B is lost annually to fraudulent clicks and impressions. Existing solutions emphasize prevention, but fall short on enabling brands to recover past losses. This startup provides a full-stack recovery solution—leveraging advanced fraud detection and offering a turnkey claims service—to help businesses quantify, audit, and reclaim their wasted ad spend. Revenue is generated via a performance-based commission on successful recoveries. Tailored for in-house teams, performance marketing agencies, and CFOs tracking ROAS, the product transforms lost spend into reclaimed budget—especially compelling in today’s ROI-driven environment.

💡 Thesis

As digital ad spend intensifies and fraud vectors evolve, there’s a greenfield opportunity for a “Stripe Tax Recovery”-style SaaS—giving SMBs and mid-market brands a frictionless way to recover lost advertising ROI.

🔍 Problem Being Searched

Searches like “recover wasted PPC budget ad fraud” reflect a clear pain point and user awareness. Brands know they’re losing money, but lack clarity on how to quantify fraud, initiate claims, or hold ad networks accountable.

📌 Google Search Insight

A shift is underway: user interest is moving from fraud prevention tools to reimbursement and accountability.

  • “click fraud software” +40% YoY

  • “fight Facebook ad fraud” +53% YoY

  • “get PPC refund Google Ads” is a breakout term (Google Trends Q1 2024)

📣 X Search Highlights

📣 Reddit Signals

  • In r/PPC:"80% of our retargeting was bots. We didn’t even know until it was too late." — u/performancepulse

  • r/marketing:"Has anyone actually got their money back from Google for invalid clicks?" — u/adbudgetghost

  • r/EntrepreneurRideAlong:"Building a tool to detect fraudulent clicks and show recoverable spend. Would anyone use this?" — u/founder_on_fire

🧬 Customer Problem & Value Proposition

PPC advertisers often spend tens of thousands monthly, yet lack deep visibility into invalid traffic draining that budget. Many are unaware they even qualify for refunds or credits. Existing fraud tools like ClickCease help prevent future losses but don’t offer retroactive analysis or direct claim submission.

→ Before: guesswork, limited tools, and clunky refund processes

→ After: streamlined detection, automated recovery, and full-service audit support

🎯 Ideal Customer

  • DTC brands spending $25K+/mo on Meta and Google

  • Performance marketing agencies managing 6–7 figure ad budgets

  • CFOs and CMOs accountable for ROAS optimization

🧰 Product Offer

Ad Fraud Recovery: Auditing-as-a-Service

  • Secure, read-only integrations with Meta and Google Ads

  • ML-powered anomaly detection on click pattern data

  • Monthly fraud reporting with estimated claimable losses

  • End-to-end claim filing and fund recovery on clients’ behalf

  • Real-time alerts via Slack + performance dashboard

Monetization Model:

  • Performance-based: 25–30% commission on funds recovered

  • Premium tier ($49–$199/mo): faster SLAs, deeper integrations

📊 Proof & Market Context

Ad Fraud Market

  • Digital ad fraud projected to reach $88B annually by 2025 (Juniper Research)

  • 17% of 2023 ad traffic deemed non-human or suspicious (eMarketer)

  • Most SMBs remain unaware of ongoing fraud until a third-party audit reveals it

MarTech Landscape

  • Solutions like ClickCease, CHEQ, and TrafficGuard focus on blocking bad traffic upfront

  • Google and Facebook rarely issue proactive refunds; users must detect losses themselves

  • The market lacks tools offering hands-on recovery services and claims execution

🧩 The Market Gap

Detection ≠ Recovery.

What Stripe did for payment fee disputes and what MainStreet did for R&D credit recovery, no one has yet done for ad fraud reimbursement. This is the unclaimed operational layer between ad spend and actual ROI recovery.

⚔️ Competitive Landscape

Product

Focus

Strengths

Weaknesses

 

ClickCease

Fraud prevention

Real-time blocking, Google-certified

No support for past spend recovery

CHEQ.ai

Ad fraud protection

Enterprise-grade analytics

Complex onboarding

Ad Fraud Recovery

Refund-as-a-service

Recovery-centric, pay-for-results model

Low brand awareness, trust build needed

🚀 Go-To-Market Strategy

Phase 1

  • Launch “Free PPC Recovery Report” landing page

  • Conduct cold outreach to DTC CMOs and boutique growth agencies

  • Build foundational integrations with Google Ads and Meta Ads APIs

Phase 2

  • Publish case studies: e.g. “Recovered $12.4K in 10 days for a DTC watch brand”

  • Offer white-label version to PPC agencies

  • Launch detection alert widget and Slack notification bot

Phase 3

  • Release AI-powered waste estimation tool

  • Add Stripe payout rails for direct client refunds

  • Build public Fraud Insights Index segmented by vertical and channel

💡 Why Now

  • Ad budgets are under scrutiny in a tighter macro environment

  • Attribution on Meta and Google is weakening

  • ROAS pressure is shifting priorities from growth to efficiency

  • VCs are backing ROI- and retention-centric tools (a16z, Hustle Fund, etc.)

📈 Market Sizing

  • 4M+ businesses advertise on Meta and Google

  • Estimated $88B in ad fraud losses (2023, Juniper)

  • Addressable recovery TAM: $8B–$16B (assuming 1–3% clawback potential)

🎯 Execution Plan

  • Time to MVP: 6–8 weeks

  • Tech stack: Node.js backend, Google Ads + Meta APIs, Stripe for payouts, Notion/Linear for ops

  • Team: 1 full-stack dev, 1 fractional PPC + GTM strategist

  • Growth loop: Site → email list → Chrome extension audit tool

📌 Analyst Take

Ad Fraud Recovery flips a frustrating marketing expense into a claims-based re-budgeting win. Like TurboTax for PPC waste, it helps marketers confront inefficiencies and unlock capital they've already spent. Recovery-as-a-service is an emerging category—and this team could define it.

🧠 Prepared Takeaway

"Fixing waste is recession-proof. In a margin-focused world, tools that optimize sunk costs—like ad fraud refunds—win cycles and loyalty." — Jamie Lin, Senior Market Analyst, Pinpoint Capital

🧭 Recommendations & Next Steps

  • ✓ Build read-only Google/META ad account audit workflow

  • ✓ Launch waitlist for “Free Fraud Report” beta

  • ✓ Onboard 3 pilot agencies to demonstrate ROI

  • ✓ Ship claim submission UI and payout tracking dashboard

📈 Insight ROI

  • Save 5–12% of ad budget per client

  • Earn 25–30% commission per verified recovery

  • Monthly analysis builds engagement and retention through habit formation

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